Exit polls 2024: Exit polls vs actual results in 2014 and 2019

PTC Web Desk: As the seventh phase of voting for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 concludes at 6 pm on Saturday, all eyes now turn to the exit polls. Although the exit polls offer early predictions about the election outcome, they often fail to capture the final results accurately. Historical data from the 2014 and 2019 elections highlight the discrepancies between exit poll projections and actual outcomes.

Exit Polls vs Actual Results in 2014

In 2014, exit polls generally anticipated a victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but they significantly underestimated the scale of the landslide. Here’s a detailed look at the predictions and the actual results:

NDA Predictions

India Today-Cicero: Predicted 272 seats for the NDA

News 24-Chanakya: Forecasted 340 seats

CNN-IBN-CSDS: Estimated 280 seats

Times Now ORG: Anticipated 249 seats

ABP News-Nielsen: Predicted 274 seats

NDTV-Hansa Research: Projected 279 seats

UPA Predictions

India Today-Cicero: Predicted 115 seats for the UPA

News 24-Chanakya: Estimated 101 seats

CNN-IBN-CSDS: Projected 97 seats

Times Now ORG: Anticipated 148 seats

ABP News-Nielsen: Forecasted 97 seats

NDTV-Hansa Research: Predicted 103 seats

Actual Results

NDA: Won 336 seats with the BJP alone securing 282 seats

UPA: Managed only 60 seats, with the Congress winning just 44 seats

Exit Polls vs Actual Results in 2019

The 2019 elections saw a similar trend where exit polls generally predicted a win for the NDA, but varied widely in their seat estimates. Here’s a detailed breakdown

NDA Predictions

India Today-Axis: Predicted a range of 339-365 seats

News 24-Today’s Chanakya: Forecasted 350 seats

News18-IPSOS: Estimated 336 seats

Times Now VMR: Anticipated 306 seats

India TV-CNX: Predicted 300 seats

Sudarshan News: Projected 305 seats

UPA Predictions

India Today-Axis: Predicted a range of 77-108 seats

News 24-Today’s Chanakya: Estimated 95 seats

News18-IPSOS: Projected 82 seats

Times Now VMR: Anticipated 132 seats

India TV-CNX: Forecasted 120 seats

Sudarshan News: Predicted 124 seats

Actual Results

NDA: Won 352 seats with the BJP alone securing 303 seats

UPA: Won 91 seats, with the Congress party securing 52 seats

The 2019 exit polls were somewhat closer to the actual results compared to 2014, but they still varied significantly. Notably, most exit polls underestimated the NDA’s final tally.

Implications for 2024

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw to a close, the battle between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA bloc remains intense. The ruling BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third consecutive term with an ambitious goal of surpassing 400 seats for the NDA.

However, the historical data cautions us about the reliability of exit polls. Despite advancements in polling techniques and methodologies, exit polls have often missed the mark due to various factors such as sampling errors, respondent bias, and the complex nature of India’s electorate.