Exit polls to predict next government | When & Where To Watch

Exit polls: The Lok Sabha elections 2024 will conclude on Saturday (June 1) with polling in 57 parliamentary seats across seven states and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. This marks the end of a seven-phase electoral process that began on April 19. The final phase, taking place on June 1, will be closely watched, especially as attention shifts to the exit polls that will follow.

Exit polls are post-election surveys that gather data by asking voters whom they supported after they leave the polling stations. These surveys are designed to predict the outcome of the election, contrasting with opinion polls, which gauge voter intentions before the election. It’s important to note that exit polls have a history of inaccuracies too.

Where to Watch Exit Polls?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has prohibited news channels from broadcasting exit poll results until 6 pm on June 1, the final day of voting. Following this embargo, news channels will begin releasing their exit poll projections between 6.30 pm and 7 pm on Saturday. These results will be available on television and live-streamed on various social media platforms, including YouTube.

The seven-phase election commenced on April 19, with subsequent phases on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 25.

Key Contests and Candidates

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third consecutive term in office. If successful, this would also mark a third straight single-party majority for the BJP. Prime Minister Modi, who represents Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, is seeking re-election from this constituency for the third time. His primary challenger in Varanasi is Ajay Rai, the Congress party’s state unit chief, who earlier contested against Modi in 2014 and 2019, finishing third on both occasions. Varanasi is among the key constituencies voting on Saturday, drawing significant attention from political analysts and the public.

NDA vs INDIA Bloc

The election sees a major contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) Bloc, led by the Congress. The outcome of this election will determine the direction of India’s political landscape for the next five years.

Significance of Exit Polls

While exit polls are eagerly awaited, their predictions must be taken with caution due to past inaccuracies. However, they provide an initial glimpse into the potential outcome and help set the narrative for post-election discussions. These polls are crucial as they can influence market reactions and the political strategies of parties awaiting the final results.